Executive Summary
“We’re bullish, but not naive.” “A seesaw of risk and reward.” “I’m confident in the market, but less confident in my own outlook.” A kind of “stubborn optimism” ran through Dykema’s 2026 M&A Outlook Survey, with both opportunity and hesitation showing up in equal measures from our respondents. After 22 years of taking the pulse of dealmakers on the trends driving M&A activity, Dykema recognizes the difference between caution and outright pessimism. For now, this year reads like the latter.
Just over half of respondents expect U.S. M&A activity to strengthen over the next 12 months, a meaningful step back from last year’s outlook. Familiar obstacles like economic uncertainty, valuation gaps, and financing costs are proving harder to shake this time around. Capital hasn’t dried up, but there appears to be a widening gap between what buyers are willing to pay and what targets believe they are worth.
Artificial intelligence has stopped being just a tool that dealmakers use to move more efficiently and has become a significant reason deals happen at all. Data centers, digital infrastructure, and the technology companies building the AI economy are drawing more deal interest than any other sector this year, evidence that buyers are chasing the physical and digital backbone of AI rather than just the software layer on top. That enthusiasm comes with a catch. Dealmakers see the clearest value in using AI for due diligence, yet accuracy, reliability, and data privacy remain their biggest reservations about trusting it with much else.
Trade policy adds another variable to the equation, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting tariffs to delay or restructure cross-border deals, and a growing share expecting regulators to get more involved [in issues affecting transactions] before the year is out.
Twenty-two years of tracking this market has shown us that dealmakers rarely agree on much, but this year’s data suggests something close to consensus. Our survey results signal a year in which the deals that cross the finish line will belong to those who are best prepared, with respondents expecting sell-side readiness and diligence rigor to determine which transactions succeed.
