INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Energy & Natural Resources

The energy and natural resource sector remains attractive among dealmakers, with 20% of respondents expecting the most M&A activity in the coming year. Though the level of interest remains consistent year over year, buyers appear to be more selective about how they pursue growth. Across oil and gas, power, and renewables, the most desirable targets are those that can build scale, financial strength, and connectivity without delay.

The power and utilities space is where that shift is most visible, as rising electricity demand from AI and data centers is pushing buyers toward targets that offer grid-connected assets, generation capacity, and transmission infrastructure. NextEra Energy’s proposed $67 billion merger with Dominion Energy reflects the scale at which utilities are pursuing mergers to fund grid reinforcement and generation buildout. Regulators, utilities, and large-load customers like data centers are still working out how those costs get allocated, and that uncertainty is shaping how buyers underwrite deals in the space.

Dealmaking in the oil and gas sector is consolidating around capital efficiency and balance sheet strength rather than volume growth. And as companies seek to lock in long-term supply stability, natural gas in particular is increasingly viewed as a source of energy security. Renewables remain part of the mix, but capital is spreading across the full generation stack rather than concentrating in wind and solar alone. More buyers are looking at gas-fired generation, nuclear, and storage alongside renewables, prioritizing projects that can add capacity with fewer permitting or connection hurdles.

That infrastructure bottleneck was evident among respondents, with one pointing to a volatile capital environment in which “limitations on power, water, and permitting among infrastructure-intensive projects complicate underwriting and execution”. So while demand remains strong, the physical and regulatory infrastructure to meet it is lagging behind.

For deal teams operating out of Houston, 2026 has brought a rise in activity close to home, including a major upstream merger that kept the combined company’s headquarters in Houston and a large producer relocating its base to the area. Second-quarter upstream deal value of $9.1 billion looks modest on its face, but more than 40% of it came from a single record federal lease sale, and analysts view the slowdown as a temporary negotiating obstacle tied to crude volatility rather than weak demand. Competition for top-tier Permian inventory remains intense, and private buyers financed through asset-backed securitization now account for nearly 30% of asset-level deals, having absorbed roughly $10 billion of assets over the past year. With private companies expected to be the primary sellers in a busier second half, preparation matters: clean title and assignments, well-documented joint operating agreements, and tax-efficient structures settled before a process begins.